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Kamis, 05 Mei 2016

Scalping day ~ forex trading 4 hour chart


Scalping Day tools
The major support and resistance levels and patterns we will use on the 5M chart are:
A. The High and Low of the Previous Day.
B. Fibonacci Levels drawn from the High and Low of the Previous Day.
C. The 200ma. (Only on entry when no other levels are near)
D. The 75ma and the 21ema to gauge trend.
E. The Fast Run Up/Down price move and the large bar/spike bar move, which indicate a
possible trend change.

The priority of the levels from strongest to weakest are as follows:
Strongest Levels:
High Previous Day and Low Previous Day.
Fibonacci levels.
Weakest Level:
200ma (used only for starting a trade if no other levels are near)
Test of Support and test of resistance.
MA’s:
21ema is stronger than the 75ma.
Strongest Entry and Exit Patterns:
Large bar and Spike bar.
If Large bar or Spike bar is preceded with Fast Run Down or Fast run Up.
Weaker Entry and Exit Patterns:
Fast Run Down and Fast Run Up with no Large or Spike Bar.

As price nears these levels we note what price does at these levels. It may start a move with the
trend or move counter-trend. It may also do nothing. The 75ma/21ema are not levels. They are
guides to know if the market is trending and how much it is trending. This information can be used as when the market is in a trend, as the old saying goes, we do not fight it. Meaning we trade in the
direction of the trend. The 200ma is used only to initiate a trade if not other levels are near. It is also
used to note if the market is on the Bullish or Bearish side. If price is above the 200ma it is Bullish. If price is below the 200ma it is Bearish.
The charts below are examples of the 5M levels and patterns. Our trading runs from midnight to
noon Eastern Time.

Trending Day:
A. When the market is trending it is best to trade with the trend and wait to see if the trend
changes at a major S/R level. Many times the trend will continue past all levels. But note that a start
of a trend will usually start at one of the major S/R levels. The 21ema and the 75ma are used mainly
on these days for trade entry.
Non-Trending Days:
A. We use S/R levels to initiate a trade. The DT/DB pattern is used for confirmation
Range Days or times:
A. If price on the 5M makes two tops and two bottoms near each other the market has
moved into a range. Another way to look at it is a DT and a DB or vice versa. Enter
and exit quickly at the tops and bottoms of the range. Once a range has started d not
trade 10/21 crossovers. Trade only aggressive trades or stay out. Conservative trades
will not make any profit in a range.
Previous Days High and Low Levels: (Strongest S/R level)
A. Draw lines on the current days chart from the high and low of the previous day. The
previous day is from midnight to midnight. So if the current day is September 23 you
would draw the lines from midnight on the 22 nd to midnight on the 23 rd .
B. Price can be 15 pips or less on either side from the HPD/LPD and be valid if price
reverses, or passes the HPD/LPD. Best for Counter-trend moves.
Fibonacci Levels:
A. The extreme Fib levels are the strongest. They are the 38.2% and the 78.6% Fibs.
However price can hit any Fib level and reverse. Best for C/T moves.
B. Price can be 4 pips or less on either side of the Fibonacci Level. Best for 1 st entry only.
200ma:
A. The 200ma works effectively to initiate a trade when no other levels are near only. It is
also good to note if the market is bullish or bearish.
Double Tops/Bottoms:
A. These are common technical patterns that are used in trading. They can be seen all
over the chart. They are most important when used with a level or for a possible trend
change on a non-trending day. A double top is shaped like a ‘M’ and a double bottom
is shaped like a ‘W’. See the Introduction to Technical Analysis in the back of the
Introduction to Forex bonus ebook included for examples.
Fast Run UP/Down Patterns:
A. These patterns are seen most of the time a price makes a quick attempt to reach a
major level. Most of the time they indicate a possible trend change. We need to be

watching for these patterns as price nears a major S/R level.
Scalping Day

Scalping Day


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Rabu, 13 April 2016

Using moving averages to analyze the market ~ forex market hours christmas


Generally moving averages can be used to analyze the market in order to identify the following features:
Identify a trending market (up or down);
Locate a lateral phase of the market (ranging market);
Understanding the levels of support and resistance static or dynamic;
Identify the levels of breakout.
Moving averages identify a trending market when:
The moving average is rising
- The price line tend to be above the moving average
- A shorter moving average crossed the longer moving average

To identify a trend long occor look at daily or weekly charts.
To identify the longer term trend you can draw 200 SMA and 144 EMA onto the chart.
Simply When the 144 EMA is above the 200 SMA and at the same time the price is above the 200 SMA while Both moving averages are diverging.
longer term trend you can draw 200 SMA and 144 EMA onto the chart.
Now, we have the big picture of the market and we at least know that a LONG trade is not as risky as a SHORT trade. However, a short term trader needs a short term signal to enter the market. A short term LONG signal would identify when:
- The 144 EMA crossed the 200 SMA on 4H chart;
- The price must be above the 200 SMA;
- The MAs is diverging;
Using moving averages to analyze the market

Velocity of market with moving averages 

When a market is in an uptrend the shorter moving average tends to diverge quickly from the longer moving average and this makes the distance between two moving averages looks wider. This phenomenon indicates that the momentum (velocity of the price) of the price is rising. 
Otherwise, when two moving averages are converging after they diverged once earlier (Where we took the LONG trade), the price tends to pull back and this means the momentum of the market is slowing, so the LONG trade is about to be invalid and we must exit the market. 
Furthermore, two moving averages are on their way to cross over again but this time shorter moving average cross the longer moving average in opposite direction (Downward). The downward cross over of two moving averages gives us very valuable information in which  the momentum has slowed into levels that the price can not rely on it anymore. A very weak momentum would means that the market is going to be lazy (Consolidation) so we must avoid this situation and wait till a new clear signal tell us what to do next.


Pratical setting of moving averages:
short term scale:
fast: (6, 13) periods, close (EMA and SMA),
triple moving averages  9, 10, 13, 18, 20 and 21 (periods),
40, 55 and 89 periods for medium term scale,
100, 144, 200 for long term scale.

EMA=Exponetial moving averages.
SMA=Simple moving averages.













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Minggu, 10 April 2016

Parabolic Sar and three exponential moving averages ~ forex market hours on friday


Parabolic Sar and three exponential moving averages
Parabolic Sar and three exponential moving averages
Parabolic Sar and three exponential moving averages is a tren following trading system, that uses 2 technical indicators to determine you when you should enter and exit a trade.
Technical indicators:
Parabolic SAR (0.2 0.02),
the Exponential Moving Averages 10, 25 and 50 (period).
Time Frame 60 minute

Currency Pairs: majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY,GBP/JPY, USD/JPY).
Rules
10 EMA crosses the 25 and the 50. If the 10 EMA crosses the 25 and 50
up from the bottom, you enter your trade ‘long’ and ‘buy. If the 10 cross the 25 and 50 down from the top you go ‘short’ and ‘sell’. Make sure that when you get into your trade that the Parabolic SAR is on the bottom when you go long and on the top when you go short.

Parabolic Sar and three exponential moving averages
Parabolic Sar and three exponential moving averages
In the example (Buy) USD/CHF , where I indicated the enter. See how the 10 EMA crossed up the 25 and 50 and the Parabolic SAR was on the bottom.
Confirm this trade with a switcth at the 15 min charts Parabolic SAR is going the same way. Note: never trade against the 15 min Parabolic SAR .

EXIT a trade
When the 3 EMAs crosses in opposite direction, this is a best way to exit a trade.
Set stop loss below/above the 50 EMA.


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