Forex Trading Strategy 111 - forex trading vs day trading

Forex Trading Strategy 111 ~ forex trading vs day trading

Market Analysis of the 22nd of December 2014 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

EUR/USD: Still not in the wave 4 officially, new push of the price south and it is now below the fractal box reaching a new low. Downtrend
GBP/USD: Same as EUR/USD, no cross of the Ewaves zero line, however, we have a recent divergence. It is still a downtrend overall.
USD/JPY: After the last week divergence, we have a sleeping Alligator, we are maybe already in the "b" move of the wave 4 but that wave is still not official;
USD/CHF: The wave 4 is now official and we may are already in the wave 5 as the price is above the box and the lines of the Alligator are opening. Uptrend
AUD/USD: We still are in the wave 5 but we have reached TZ2 et this wave can become a new wave 3. Downtrend.
EUR/JPY: The Ewave is going back to the zero line and is about to cross it. The price is inside the Alligator lines so we have to be prudent;
USD/CAD: The wave 5 became a new wave 3. Uptrend.
NZD/USD: The wave 5 seems to be not completed, overall the chart is downtrend.
XAU/USD: We are in the wave 4, the Alligator is sleeping. We could see a wave "c" up or the start of the wave 5. Overall, it is a downtrend.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (from Monday 22nd 8:00 GMT+1)

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Peko Money Tracker Cash Out 5 - forex trading zone indicator

Peko Money Tracker Cash Out 5 ~ forex trading zone indicator

Cashout number 5

Still no new invites, but i gave myself a target of 10k points a day minimum if not more and see how it goes. Asking around for pekos certainly helps and making new peko buddies are a good way to ensure repeat pekos. 

I had previously mentioned about the peko gold strategy but i am sure there is none for a "jackpot strategy". You probably need bionic eyes to be able to catch the fast upwards scolling of the jackpot machine.

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Breakout entry Pullback entry swing setup examples - forex trading hours good friday

Breakout entry Pullback entry swing setup examples ~ forex trading hours good friday

Breakout and pullback conditions for setups.

Before a stock or currency pair makes our breakout “watchlist,” it must satisfy two key criteria:

Stock or currency pair must be in uptrend

Stock or currency pair must have a valid basing configuration pattern.

How define an up trend (for down trend reverse conditions).

20?day EMA must be trading at or near the 50?day MA when the stock is forming a base and clearly above the 50?day MA when in trend mode.  For pullback trades, the 20?day EMA must be above the 50?day MA.

-20?day EMA must be above the 200?day MA

- 50?day MA must be above the 200?day MA

-Both the 50 and 200?day MAs must be in a clear uptrend for at least a

few months. 

- The price action should be in an uptrend with a series of higher highs

and higher lows in place over the past 3 ? 6 months (at the very least).

- Current price should at least be 30 ? 40% above the 52?week low

Trend qualifier – rules for breakout setups in the picures the examples.

rules for breakout setups

rules for breakout setups

rules for breakout setups

Valid basing pattern for breakout entry

- A base (or zone of congestion) is anywhere from 1 month to 1 year in length. For our style of trading, we prefer bases that form in a 1 - 3 month period that find and hold support of the 50-day

MA.

-We want to see “tight” price action in the base, especially during the last two weeks before the breakout.

-A valid base should pullback anywhere from 10 - 30% off the swing high. Once a stock retraces 40 - 50% or more, we begin to question the strength of the uptrend.

We must see a “higher low” form within the base. This is crucial to the pattern. Without a higher low forming, we have no way to set a stop and therefore can not define the risk.

- Volume should be declining during a base, or at the very least, not heavier than average. If there are too many days of heavy volume selling in a base, the base could be faulty.

Main characteristics of a valid base

Main characteristics of a valid base

The Breakout Entry examples.

    

Breakout Entry the trigger

Breakout Entry

A pullback setup occurs when a stock breaks out from a valid basing pattern and then pulls back for 3 – 7 days:

Pullback setup

Pullback Setup

Pullback setup step by step

Reference Deron Wagner

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Peko Money Tracker Gold Strategy - forex trading new zealand

Peko Money Tracker Gold Strategy ~ forex trading new zealand

Gold strategy!

The highest points in Peko are achieved by hitting gold, and the jackpot chance it brings along. Therefore it is the aim of every player to hit gold as many times as possible. However this is a game of roulette and luck plays an important role in hitting the gold spot, but wait a minute! Do we really want to depend of luck for this money spinning game? Why not try this gold strategy i have listed below and is tried and tested by many peko players. 

Let the gold hole; on the roulette turn to about the 1 oclock position. Then release the ball with the least strength possible. Thats it! Try and see if this method works for you. Good Luck! :)

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Forex Trading Strategy 130 - forex trading without stop loss

Forex Trading Strategy 130 ~ forex trading without stop loss

Review of the week 27 -31 October on 9 pairs H1

A lovely week: +13.5% profit  due to a massive trade on XAU/USD: Thanks Gold!

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Forex Trading Strategy 128 - forex trading with fidelity

Forex Trading Strategy 128 ~ forex trading with fidelity

Trade of the week: Good +120 pip profit (+4%) trade on USD/CAD H1 on 3-5 November 2014
For more details, click "Examples of Trade" in the menu

On H4, its an uptrend with alligator open, we had a first break of the fractal box on H1 and after a retrace we take this second break. The price flies and is always above the red line, we exit when the candle crosses the green line after the 3rd divergence (not before as the H4 ewave was still close to the zero line and was peaking)

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5 min Bollinger Bands Intraday System - forex trading times gmt

5 min Bollinger Bands Intraday System ~ forex trading times gmt

On a chart of 5-minute bars for a stock, plot out the 10-bar moving average and the Bollinger bands for 2 standard deviations on either side of the average. Then apply the following system:

Buy when the stock falls 3 percent below its lower band. Hold until at least the end of the 5-minute bar where the stock was bought.

Sell when the stock hits a 1 percent profit target or at the end of the second bar after the stock was bought.

The critical issue is how to keep track of all the stocks one is interested in. Before the open, use charting software such as eSignal or TradeStation, or Wealth-Lab (which is the software I use for all of my testing) to identify the Bollinger band levels for each stock. It is then possible with all of these packages to set up alerts and even interface with direct-access brokers, such as Interactive Brokers or Cybertrader, to actually make the trades automatically.

The key in all of these examples is time. Basically, the market has such an

extreme and quick selloff in order to trigger this system that the stock ei-

ther bounces back immediately or flounders about. If the latter, then we

promptly get out since we are only looking for our profit target within the

ten minutes following the entry bar.

ORCL, 5/20/2002, 10:30 AM

Merrill Lynch, in a post-Blodget fury of tech pessimism, reiterated a broads weeping recommendation the morning of May 20, 2002, to sell technology stocks into any strength. While their prediction proved mildly prophetic for all of two months, anybody short technology at May 2002 levels would have been killed over the following year. Nevertheless, the panic to get out of the popular tech issues, for instance ORCL, was enough to trigger a signal on ORCL at 10:30 AM at 8.73 (1). In a brief flurry of selling, it hit 3 percent below its lower band, which it had been steadily walking down all morning. Buying at the critical level and holding until the open of the next 5-minute bar would have resulted in a quick 3.3 percent profit with the sale at 9.02.

5 min Bollinger Bands System

MSFT, 4/3/2000

Many of examples occur close to the open of the day, which is the time when there is the most volatility and also the most panic. The market has had all night to hear and absorb news, and thus the open is when the most participants at once are acting on that news.

Look at Figure 2. On April 3, 2000, MSFT gapped down and triggered signals for two five-minute bars in a row, at 9:30 AM at the open and 5 minutes later at 9:40 AM . The first signal was sold off at the close of the second bar at 47.69 for a 1 percent profit, and the second signal, which was bought at the open of the second bar at 47.44, was promptly sold at 47.91 for a 1 percent profit.

5 min Bollinger Bands Intraday System

AMAT, 11/12/01

On the morning of November 12, 2001, a plane crashed near Kennedy air port. The crash was not apparently an act of terrorism but nobody knew that at the time. Futures spiked lower and the tech stocks, which were hit hardest during the week after September 11, 2001, suffered a minicrash im-

mediately prior to the open. Being alert and capitalizing on the panic would have enabled one to buy AMAT, which triggered a buy signal at its premarket low at 18.20 when it hit 3 percent lower than its lower Bollinger band (Figure3, . Holding to the close of that 5-minute bar would have enabled one to sell immediately at 19.33 for a 6.15 percent profit.

5 min Bollinger Bands Intraday System

 

5 Min BB System, 2/2/02–6/30/03 results

 

You can apply this system also at the Forex Majors (with 20-30 pips outside the bands).

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Using moving averages to analyze the market - forex market hours christmas

Using moving averages to analyze the market ~ forex market hours christmas

Generally moving averages can be used to analyze the market in order to identify the following features:
Identify a trending market (up or down);
Locate a lateral phase of the market (ranging market);
Understanding the levels of support and resistance static or dynamic;
Identify the levels of breakout.
Moving averages identify a trending market when:
The moving average is rising
- The price line tend to be above the moving average
- A shorter moving average crossed the longer moving average

To identify a trend long occor look at daily or weekly charts.
To identify the longer term trend you can draw 200 SMA and 144 EMA onto the chart.
Simply When the 144 EMA is above the 200 SMA and at the same time the price is above the 200 SMA while Both moving averages are diverging.

Now, we have the big picture of the market and we at least know that a LONG trade is not as risky as a SHORT trade. However, a short term trader needs a short term signal to enter the market. A short term LONG signal would identify when:

- The 144 EMA crossed the 200 SMA on 4H chart;

- The price must be above the 200 SMA;

- The MAs is diverging;

Velocity of market with moving averages 

When a market is in an uptrend the shorter moving average tends to diverge quickly from the longer moving average and this makes the distance between two moving averages looks wider. This phenomenon indicates that the momentum (velocity of the price) of the price is rising. 

Otherwise, when two moving averages are converging after they diverged once earlier (Where we took the LONG trade), the price tends to pull back and this means the momentum of the market is slowing, so the LONG trade is about to be invalid and we must exit the market. 

Furthermore, two moving averages are on their way to cross over again but this time shorter moving average cross the longer moving average in opposite direction (Downward). The downward cross over of two moving averages gives us very valuable information in which  the momentum has slowed into levels that the price can not rely on it anymore. A very weak momentum would means that the market is going to be lazy (Consolidation) so we must avoid this situation and wait till a new clear signal tell us what to do next.

Pratical setting of moving averages:

short term scale:

fast: (6, 13) periods, close (EMA and SMA),

triple moving averages  9, 10, 13, 18, 20 and 21 (periods),

40, 55 and 89 periods for medium term scale,

100, 144, 200 for long term scale.

EMA=Exponetial moving averages.

SMA=Simple moving averages.

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Map of the Market with Breakout - forex trading hours 2016

Map of the Market with Breakout ~ forex trading hours 2016

Map of the Market with Breakoutis a trading system whose purpose is to identify the movements that occur on a day in all three sessions (Asia, Europe, America).

Time Frame 15 min.

To achieve this goal I have identified five boxes on the chart:

first (2:00 -3: 00);

second (5: 00- 6: 00);

third (9: 00- 10:00);

fourth (15: 00- 16:00);

fifth (17: 00- 18:00).

These boxes are determined by the fact that the market movements on average occur after these hours.

First way

Buy

Place a buy stop order 2 pips above the last 15 minute candle of the box.

Sell

Place a sell stop order 2 pips below the last 15 minute candle of the box.

Second way

Buy

Place a buy stop order 2 pips above the high of the box.

Sell

Place a sell stop order 2 pips below low of the box.

Profit target 15-20 pips. Aggressive profit target 5-7 pips.

Initial stop loss 20 pips after 14 pips in gain move stop at the breakeven.

You can also use a trailing stop of 15-18 pips.

In the examples show both ways to buy and sell.

I recommend the second, to consider, the maximum and minimum of the box to place pending orders.

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Forex Trading Strategy 113 - forex trading video tutorials download

Forex Trading Strategy 113 ~ forex trading video tutorials download

Trade of the Week: XAU/USD H1: 9-10 December: +200 pips (+3.5%)

For more details, click "Examples of Trade" in the menu

On H4, we have a perfect setup with a sleeping alligator and an Ewave about to cross the zero line, we look for an entry on H1. On H4, we missed the first break of the fractal box during the night and the second break before Francfort Open. We take the third break as the price did not go far and our initial stop loss is below the green line because we are in an investing mode (Risk: 60 pips). The prices flies and we exit at the candle who closes below the green line after the divergence for 200 pips (+3.5% Profit).

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Forex trading with Volatility Market - forex market hours live

Forex trading with Volatility Market ~ forex market hours live

We will identify volatile market for forex trading:

Bollinger bands: very wide or visibly wider compared to last flat period.

CCI: levels of this indicator are far from 0 line and changing consistently to any direction.

RSI: levels of this indicator are below 40 or above 60, changing direction. We avoid trading if it stays somewhere around level of 50, as it indicate price consolidation or flat market.

Scenario 1 – moderate swings

Open buy:

(1) EMA5 crosses EMA10 from below to upper direction, (2) RSI crosses 50 line from below to upper direction and (3) Stochastic direction is up or just changed direction to up.

Important: if Stochastic indicator meets buy conditions, one of (1) and (2) conditions are met and other are close to these conditions buy order also should be opened.

Close buy:

(1) EMA5 crosses EMA10 from above to lower direction or (2) RSI crosses 50 line from above

to lower direction or (3) Stochastic crosses level of 80 from above to lower direction.

Open sell:

(1) EMA5 crosses EMA10 from upper to lower direction, (2) RSI crosses 50 line from above to lower direction and (3) Stochastic direction is down or just changed direction to down.

Important: if Stochastic indicator meets buy conditions, one of (1) and (2) conditions are met and other are close to these conditions sell order also should be opened.

Close sell:

(1) EMA5 crosses EMA10 from below to upper direction or (2) RSI crosses 50 line from below

to upper direction or (3) Stochastic crosses level of 20 from below to upper direction.

Scenario 2 – seeking for extremes

Open buy:

(1) Price candles became far below both EMAs and current current candle touches EMA5, (2) RSI reached level of around 30 or less and is reversing upwards and (3) Stochastic is below 50 line and it‘s direction is up or just changed direction to up and (4) CCI reached level below -100 (optimal if below -200) and is reversing upwards.

Important: if Stochastic indicator meets buy conditions, one of (1) (2) and (4) conditions are met and other are close to these conditions buy order also should be opened.

Close buy:

(1) EMA5 crosses EMA10 from above to lower direction or (2) RSI crosses 50 line from above

to lower direction or reached level of about 50 and reverses downwards or (3) Stochastic crosses level of 80 from above to lower direction.

Open sell:

(1) Price candles became far above both EMAs and current current candle touches EMA5, (2) RSI reached level of around 70 or more and is reversing downwards and (3) Stochastic is above 50 line and it‘s direction is down or just changed direction to downwards and (4) CCI reached level above 100 (optimal if above 200) and is reversing downwards.

Important: if Stochastic indicator meets buy conditions, one of (1) (2) and (4) conditions are met and other are close to these conditions sell order also should be opened.

Close sell:

(1) EMA5 crosses EMA10 from bellow to upper direction or (2) RSI crosses 50 line from below

to upper direction or reached level of about 50 and reverses upwards or (3) Stochastic crosses level of 20 from below to upper direction.

Forex trading with Volatility Market

First trade we missed quite nice trade oppurtunite, because Bollinger Bands indicated flat market.

So we start with the first trade: this is moderate swing trade, CCI and Stochastic confirmed the trade, while RSI and EMAs were about to confirm the trade on past candle, so we enter at the next candle opening. Exit confirmed by stochastic.

Second trade: market became volatile, indicated by bollinger bands. In thi case we see CCI and RSI extreme. We enter trade on next candle after the signals are confirmed. Exit is indicated by RSI crossing 50 line upwards.

Third trade: Bollinger bands and CCI indicates trending market. CCI comes close to level of 0 and RSI crosses 50 line down and then crosses back upwards, while Stochastic and EMAs confirm the trade. Exit is indicated by Stochastic.

Fourth trade: all indicators indicate moderate swing trade, while Bollinger bands stays wide indicating volatile market, so we enter at the next candle. Exit is indicated by Stochastic.

Fifth trade: here we see either „seeking for extreme“ moderate swing trade situation. Seeking for extreme situation suggests entering the trade one candle earlier, although entering later would still be profitable. Exit is indicated by Stochastic.

Sixt trade: the trade is still running as I am writing explanation now. This is normal moderate swing trade, all indicator confirms that so we enter at the next candle after confirmation.

Between trades 2 and 3 there is quite confusing situation. All signals are likely to confirm buy trade, but: Bollinger bands indicates trending market. But in trending market for a possitive trade, we need CCI to stay around level of 100, not being in extremes few candles earlier. In this situation we see that CCI just recovered from extreme of over 320, so it is dangerous time to take early trade. Anyway, if by mistake we would have taken this trade, the loss would be minor, compared with all other profitable trades

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